气体故障

质疑燃气发电厂的可靠性

保罗Arbaje, 马克Specht

出版于2024年1月9日

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The United States is overly reliant on gas plants—and extreme weather is causing them to fail at alarming rates.

我们分析了美国最近发生的五起大规模电力故障, 包括2021年“尤里”冬季风暴造成的轮流停电. We found that gas plants accounted for most of the failed capacity in all five events.

随着617888九五至尊娱乐变化影响的加剧, 极端天气事件正变得越来越频繁和严重, 对天然气厂的威胁越来越大, 反过来, 电网的可靠性. 一些更现代的解决方案, 包括清洁能源和电池存储, 能否帮助决策者提高电网可靠性, 同时减少我们对天然气的依赖.

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气体故障

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The US electricity sector has made significant progress in transitioning to wind, 太阳能, 以及其他清洁的电力来源. 然而, natural gas–fired power plants ("gas plants") still play a major role on the electric grid, providing 40 percent of electricity generation and accounting for 43 percent of electricity generating capacity. 对天然气工厂的过度依赖, 再加上对它们可靠性的错误假设, 电网是否存在重大漏洞. Gas plant operations are particularly susceptible to damage and disruptions during extreme weather events, 随着617888九五至尊娱乐变化,哪些正变得越来越频繁和严重. 极端天气下天然气厂的故障威胁到电网的可靠性, 在人们最需要电力的时候,它们会导致轮流停电. 在快速变化的617888九五至尊娱乐和日益频繁的天然气工厂故障中, 我们必须重新评估这种资源在确保电网可靠性方面的作用.

A figure labeled "Generation Failures by Fules Type During Five Extreme Winter Storms" showing that gas plants accounted for most of the failed capacity in five recent extreme winter weather events.
天然气厂占了损失产能的大部分 in five recent extreme winter weather events. Gas plants failed disproportionately in comparison to gas’s percentage of total installed capacity, indicating that they are more susceptible to extreme winter weather than are other resource types. 有关此图的更多详细信息,请参阅问题摘要.

问题:极端天气下天然气厂的故障

天然气厂容易受到一系列极端天气事件的影响, 包括热浪, 寒流, 和干旱, 最具灾难性的故障发生在冬季. Federal officials have identified five winter storms over the past decade that threatened grid reliability. 在每种情况下, gas plant failures at a scale far beyond expected levels were the primary contributor to reliability challenges (see 图1).

There are two main causes for gas plants being forced to reduce their generation or shut down entirely. One is when gas plants themselves fail, usually when equipment fails in freezing temperatures. 燃料供应问题, 第二个原因, arise when transportation and production disruptions prevent gas plants from getting enough fuel—for example, 当冰冻温度影响气井生产时.

Such issues have led to widespread gas plant failures, with rolling blackouts on numerous occasions. The most devastating instance took place in 2021 when Winter Storm Uri hit the central United States. 在最糟糕的时候, the storm knocked nearly a quarter of the affected area's power plant capacity offline. 天然气厂占了损失产能的大部分. 很大程度上是由于这些发电厂的故障, 德克萨斯州的电网运营商实施了70多个小时的轮流停电. 加起来,超过4个.该州有500万用户断电,有些断电时间长达4天. Hypothermia caused roughly two-thirds of the 246 deaths in Texas attributed to Uri.

清洁能源可靠性解决方案

Utilities can 提高电网可靠性 by pursuing clean energy solutions on both the supply and demand sides. 供应解决方案, 比如可再生能源, 能量储存, 和传输, 能有效提高电网可靠性吗, especially when they include a variety of geographically distributed renewable technologies. 需求解决方案, 包括能源效率, 灵活的需求, 分布式能源, can reduce the need for electricity at times when the need usually increases dramatically, 比如在热浪来袭时使用空调,在寒潮来袭时使用暖气.

Pursuing clean energy solutions instead of fossil fuels reduces not only global warming emissions but also toxic air pollutants that harm public health, particularly in communities of color where gas plants are disproportionately located. 进一步, demand-side solutions can reduce the need for new infrastructure and diminish the land-use impacts that come with large-scale projects.

政策建议

电网规划, 监管机构, and policymakers must update the US energy system with solutions that reduce reliance on gas plants, 提高电网可靠性, 减轻617888九五至尊娱乐变化的影响.

  • The Federal 能源 Regulatory Commission (联邦能源管理委员会) should order 电网运营商 to consider the risks of widespread gas plant failures during extreme weather when evaluating the reliability of these resources.

  • State 监管机构 should not approve new gas plants except in the extremely limited cases when there are no viable clean energy solutions for grid reliability. Such a determination should rely on improved modeling tools that account for the impact of extreme weather on gas plant performance. 不应该在环境正义社区建造新的天然气工厂.

  • 联邦能源管理委员会, 电网运营商, and state utility commissions should continue reducing market and regulatory barriers to clean energy resources.

  • 电网运营商, 以及联邦和州监管机构, 是否应向公众提供详细资料, 易于获取有关发电厂停电的信息. 这将有助于让工厂所有者负责准备, 并回应, 电网可靠性面临的威胁.

  • Policymakers should increase regulatory scrutiny of the gas system to reduce the risk of failures in extreme weather—and, 万一失败发生了, 确保它们不会导致天然气厂大面积停电.

引用

阿尔巴耶,保罗,斯佩克特,马克. 2024. 燃气故障:对燃气发电厂可靠性的质疑. 剑桥,马萨诸塞州:忧思617888九五至尊娱乐家联盟. http://avqujv.shadyrockfarm.net/resources/gas-malfunction http://doi.org/10.47923/2024.15312